泛熱帶氣候動力和 2026 超級聖嬰工作坊

近年來，泛熱帶氣候系統的動力變化已成為理解極端氣候的關鍵。目前觀測數據以及氣候模式的預報都顯示，2026年極有可能迎來一次強烈的「超級聖嬰現象 (Super El Niño)」，這將改變全球的大氣環流並可能造成全球氣候劇烈變異。本次工作坊旨在匯聚氣候動力與預測領域之專家學者，深入探討泛熱帶海氣交互作用 (Pantropical ocean-atmosphere interactions) 的最新動力機制，並針對 2026 Super El Niño 的可預報度 (predictability) 進行科學診斷。會議也將聚焦於超級聖嬰對全球遙相關的影響，特別是其對東亞季風天氣型態、極端降雨及颱風生成頻率等潛在衝擊，期望透過多維度的學術交流，凝聚應對未來極端天氣風險的科學共識與研究方向。

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In recent years, dynamical changes within the pantropical climate system have become key to understanding extreme climate events. Current observational data and climate model forecasts both indicate a high probability of a strong "Super El Niño" in 2026, which will alter global atmospheric circulation and potentially cause drastic variations in the global climate. This workshop aims to convene experts and scholars in the fields of climate dynamics and prediction to deeply explore the latest dynamical mechanisms of pantropical ocean-atmosphere interactions and conduct a scientific diagnosis on the predictability of the 2026 Super El Niño. The conference will also focus on the impacts of the Super El Niño on global teleconnections, particularly its potential effects on East Asian monsoon weather patterns, extreme precipitation, and the frequency of typhoon genesis. Through multi-dimensional academic exchange, we hope to forge scientific consensus and chart future research directions for addressing the risks of future extreme weather.